Coruscation Real Estate archives.
November 10, 2005
Zell-Lurie Center, real estate development survey
Zell-Lurie Center. For the past 14 years, researchers throughout the
country, including government agencies, have used a Wharton survey
conducted by Linneman and Anita Summers, now an emeritus professor of
public policy, management, real estate and education. That survey
covered the 60 largest central cities and 2,474 suburbs in the U.S.
Following up on that effort, the Zell-Lurie Center has launched a
bigger, more complex nationwide survey on residential land use
regulation. The latest survey covers 6,900 jurisdictions with a
response rate of 37%. Three specific metropolitan areas are also
covered in depth -- Philadelphia, Boston and the Bay Area in
California.
Summers talked about some of the questions her researchers have been
asking those who have been surveyed:
* What are the lot development costs; and
* What have been the increases over the past decade ?
* Have they been required to pay the allocable cost of
infrastructure costs and infrastructure support ?
* Have they had open space requirements; and
* Do they need to include affordable housing ?
We are able to analyze these results looking all across the nation,
sorting by rich and poor communities; more educated and less educated
communities; high and fewer pockets of poverty; and combining our
survey data with census data.
-- Anita Summers.
There questions also cover the effects of regulation on certainty,
including length of time for issuance of a building permit, as
uncertainty translates into higher costs. The surveyors also looked
at who is responsible for whatever level of regulation exists in a
community. [*]
Posted by omor at 09:43 PM | Comments (0)
November 09, 2005
Real estate sentiment at Miller Samuel Soapbox
Real estate sentiment and appraisal of the New York market at
Miller Samuel's Soapbox. [*]
Posted by omor at 06:34 PM | Comments (0)
November 05, 2005
Real Estate in Academia: The Schools
Saunders, UBC
Harvard Joint Center
UCB
Penn (Zell-Lurie Center)
Posted by omor at 07:43 PM | Comments (0)
October 14, 2005
housing map 2
census track vs google map mash up.
via Google Maps Mania. Previously: Craigslist housing map mashup.
Posted by omor at 06:44 PM | Comments (0)
October 10, 2005
infoproc / Steve
Infoproc (Steve) is a physicist interested in economic inference.
Example: exporting risk.
Posted by omor at 08:09 PM | Comments (0)
September 30, 2005
Housing Map
Housing Maps
the criagslist - googlemap mash up.
See also housing maps by census.
via
link paul k @inf greed
Posted by omor at 01:30 PM | Comments (0)
September 23, 2005
Housing, constant quality index
macroblog looks at Shiller's claims of a housing bubble is about
about to burst.
Is the increase in housing indexes due to bigger, better houses,
or an genuine increase in the overall housing market ?
Housing price vs housing quality, now with quality control.
Posted by omor at 08:40 PM | Comments (0)
September 22, 2005
bubblemeter
bubblemeter / David Jackson: yet another housing bubble blog.
Posted by omor at 10:19 PM | Comments (0)
September 20, 2005
local froth and bubbles in housing
Housing bubble trackers proliferate: here's six more.
NY housing bubble, NY
Jersey Shore, NJ
Boston, MA
San Diego, CA
Seattle, WA
Marin, CA
Posted by omor at 08:25 PM | Comments (0)
September 03, 2005
Track home builders stock
Track home builders' stock.
Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL)
KB Home (KBH)
Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM)
DR Horton Inc. (DHI)
KB Home (KBH)
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV)
Posted by omor at 08:04 PM | Comments (0)
August 18, 2005
Property Grunt ++
Property Grunt is NY-centric and offers charming vignettes
with commentary. Hereby boosted from blogroll 4 to blogroll 2.
Posted by omor at 04:48 PM | Comments (0)
August 17, 2005
reowire (real estate owned (REO)) / Paul Jackson
Reowire offers more analysis than the pure doom and envy of most
housing bubble blogs, despite focusing on bank-owned real estate,
aka real estate owned (REO), and default servicing management.
Posted by omor at 10:34 AM | Comments (0)
August 11, 2005
US Housing Bubble
Another US housing bubble blog.
Mostly links of doom.
Property Grunt is NY-centric and offers a more commentary.
Posted by omor at 09:01 AM | Comments (0)
July 25, 2005
Optimal Recursive Refinancing and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities (Longstaff)
The optimal recursive refinancing problem where a borrower minimizes
his lifetime mortgage costs by repeatedly refinancing when rates
drop. Key factors affecting the optimal decision are the cost of
refinancing and the possibility that the mortgagor may have to
refinance at a premium rate because of his credit.
The optimal recursive strategy often results in prepayment being
delayed significantly relative to traditional models. Furthermore,
mortgage values can exceed par by much more than the cost of
refinancing. Applying the recursive model to an extensive sample of
mortgage-backed security prices, we find that the implied credit
spreads that match these prices closely parallel borrowers’ actual
spreads at the origination of the mortgage. These results suggest
that optimal recursive models may provide a promising alternative
to the reduced-form prepayment models widely used in practice.
Francis A. Longstaff, Anderson School of Management.
Francis A. Longstaff, "Optimal Recursive Refinancing and the Valuation
of Mortgage-Backed Securities" (December 1, 2002). Finance. Paper 15-02.
Posted by omor at 07:49 PM | Comments (0)
July 21, 2005
Asset prices by Enricode Giorgi
Default models and asset pricing models at Enricode Giorgi's resource,
some with correlated defaults.
Posted by omor at 02:12 PM | Comments (0)
July 18, 2005
PMI Group
Economic and Real Estate Trends from the PMI Group.
Posted by omor at 02:32 AM | Comments (0)
July 09, 2005
Subprime mortgage rate spread at origination
Effects largely captured by a single variable: spread at origination
(SATO). SATO measures the difference in the mortgage rate between the
specified loan and a constant-quality subprime mortgage rate. Assuming
that lenders price borrower risk efficiently, a higher SATO
implies a poorer-credit borrower.
Search for more .
Posted by omor at 05:18 PM | Comments (0)
June 12, 2005
Big Picture / Barry Ritholtz
New Yorker, car fan, and economist Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture, a well presented
peresonal economic journal. Sample article, Homeowners Go Deep in Debt to Buy
Real Estate.
Also writes as Amateur Investor columnist at The Street / Real Money.
WSJ Bio:
Barry Ritholtz is chief market strategist for Maxim Group, a New York
investment bank. At Maxim, he maintains a market-timing model to
determine risk using a combination of trend, market internals, sentiment
measures and monetary issues within a broader macroeconomic framework.
He received his bachelor's in political science from Stony Brook
University, and his graduate degree at Yeshiva University's Benjamin N.
Cardozo School of Law, focusing on economics and corporate law. He
presents his macro perspectives on capital markets, the economy and
geopolitics, along with some discussions of music and film at The Big
Picture.
Alternate URL.
Posted by omor at 07:29 PM | Comments (0)
June 05, 2005
behavioural finance at capuchinomics
Capuchinomics: *.
Behavioural finance analysis of market trends, especially housing bubble.
Yet, efficient market theory cannot answer these questions:
-Why do companies with stable cashflows, earnings, sales and profit
margins have such volatile stocks?
-If the financials are stable, why is there so much trading?
-Why do prices change so much from day to day or month to month?
-Is that much value created and destroyed in such small time frames?
-Why do stocks increase or decrease by large amounts when often the
underlying financials only change by incremental amounts?
Nicely designed and presented, looks to be well optimized for Google adsense.
Update 2005 October 16: demoted from blogroll2 to blogroll4 becasue
of login required to read.
Posted by omor at 03:35 AM | Comments (0)
May 17, 2005
Inmann
Inmann, mortgage blogger, is barkerishly spammy.
Useful listing of headlines; links are to pay-per-view versions
of what can was distributed by wire services.
Posted by omor at 07:59 PM | Comments (0)
May 15, 2005
mortgage business complements auto business
auto lending + real estate lending ------- synergy
”We find the mortgage business to be very complementary with our
auto business,” said Bob Brisco, chief executive of CarsDirect.
[*]
Posted by omor at 02:18 AM | Comments (0)
May 08, 2005
Shiller speaks
Robert Shiller speaks about Real Estate and 'Irrational Exuberance' on NPR.
More and more home owners are refinancing, and a full quarter of
homes sold last year went to investors instead of live-in homeowners.
How long can this hot market last, and when it ends, are we looking at
a minor chill, or a full-blown ice age?
Posted by omor at 06:12 PM | Comments (0)
April 28, 2005
Urban Review STL
Excelent Urban Review STL architrectural review of Saint Louis, MO
housing and commercial real estate.
Posted by omor at 01:09 AM | Comments (0)
April 26, 2005
Residential Mortgage Termination and Severity, De Franco
Modeling Residential Mortgage Termination and Severity
Using Loan Level Data
Three essays on modeling residential mortgages.
Chapter 1 presents and estimates a new model of loss given
default using a new dataset of prime and subprime mortgages. The
model combines option theory proxies with information on the loan
contract and the cash flow position of the borrower. The results
suggest that severity on subprime and adjustable rate mortgages are
similar to losses on fixed rate prime loans, but that investor owned
properties have significantly higher losses than owner occupied
houses. The results also suggest systemic overappraisals on refinanced
loans.
Chapter 2 uses option pricing methodology to value the prepayment and
default options associated with a residential mortgage, if house
prices are mean reverting.
Numerical solutions compare the results from the mean reverting house
price model to the results from a model where house prices follow a
geometric Brownian motion process.
The main contributions are:
(1) the value of the implicit rent (service flow) is derived as a
function of the house price process instead of assumed to be constant,
as in prior research;
(2) the mean reverting model has additional factors that may help
forecast mortgage termination; and
(3) the house price process is shown to have a significant effect on
the value of a mortgage over a wide range of parameter values.
Chapter 3 presents a modeling framework for residential mortgages that
has separate models for each loan payment status (Current, 30 Days
Late, 60 Days Late, 90+ Days Late, in Foreclosure, in REO, or Paid
Off). It is shown that several classes of traditional mortgage
prepayment and default models are restricted forms of this model, and
that the restrictions are rejected empirically.
Dissertation by Ralph DeFranco (U.C. Berkeley) 1994 [PDF]
Posted by omor at 11:01 PM | Comments (0)
April 25, 2005
Housing after boom
Housing after the boom explained by angry bear:
Expectation is for slowly declining prices in much of the
United States and significantly lower transaction volumes
nationwide.
Posted by omor at 07:00 PM | Comments (0)
April 24, 2005
Option-Theoretic Prepayment Model for Mortgages: Fabozzi , Kalotay and Yang
A new approach for modeling the prepayments of a mortgage pool
shows how to value mortgage pools and agency mortgage-backed
securities. A notion of refinancing efficiency describes the
full spectrum of refinancing behavior.
The approach has two distinguishing features:
(1) The primary focus is on understanding the market value of a
mortgage, in contrast with standard models that strive (often
unsuccessfully) to predict future cash flows, and
(2) we use two separate yield curves, one for discounting mortgage
cash flows and the other for MBS cash flows.
An Option-Theoretic Prepayment Model for Mortgages and Mortgage-
Backed Securities
To appear in International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
Dec 2004, jrg 7, nr 8, december 2004, pages 949-978.
[PDF]
Posted by omor at 01:24 PM | Comments (0)
April 20, 2005
Calculated Risk
Calculated Risk offers nicely illustrated economics.
There has been a significant increase in mortgage brokers. There
has been a similar increase in residential building trades, appraisers,
home inspectors and other housing related occupations. The
impact of a housing slowdown on employment will be significant.
What will the end of the refinance boom and the housing boom
do to the mortgage insdustry ?
Posted by omor at 04:20 PM | Comments (0)
April 16, 2005
housepricecrash.co.uk
housepricecrash.co.uk expert opines on the UK estate market.
Also tabulates industry index data.
See also Vancouver Housing Market and The Housing Bubble.
Posted by omor at 02:40 PM | Comments (0)
April 14, 2005
thehousingbubble
thehousingbubble, not to be confused with housingbubble track
over financed, over mortgaged real estate.
Posted by omor at 02:47 PM | Comments (0)
April 13, 2005
Vancouver housing market
Vancouver housing market.
Somewhere between curbed and housing bubble.
Posted by omor at 01:27 PM | Comments (0)
April 09, 2005
Santa Barbara bubble, dismissed
A Santa Barbara real estate tout dismisses claims of a
real estate bubble.
Posted by omor at 10:23 AM | Comments (0)
April 06, 2005
Housing Bubble Bust
Housing Bubble Bust is San Francisco-centric and frequently updates
its headlines.
Also a good list of links (at page bottom).
Posted by omor at 06:45 PM | Comments (0)
April 05, 2005
Housing bubble bloggers
housingbubble, moderately frequent. not to be confused with
thehousingbubble. Both track home of those who over finance,
over mortgage their real estate.
Posted by omor at 11:55 AM | Comments (0)
April 03, 2005
Dynamist housing bubble
Dynamist Virginia Postrel looked at rent to own costs and
saw a SoCal housing bubble.
Posted by omor at 11:37 AM | Comments (0)
March 01, 2005
Institutional Investor
Institutional Investor tracks Real Estate Finance and Investment.
Posted by omor at 11:33 PM | Comments (0)
January 09, 2005
Mortgage Blogs
The Mortgages Blog (by weblogsinc) is frequently updated with
mortgage industry news mixes some news items and more outside
links with descriptions.
Bankrate is potpourri of mortgage and consumer finance content,
more written for consumers than lenders, and syndicated onto
many consumer sites.
Posted by omor at 04:37 PM | Comments (0)